The truckload market faces mounting volatility following the FMCSA’s ruling on non-domiciled CDLs and English language proficiency requirements, according to a recent report.
Non-domiciled carriers are rapidly exiting the market, according to the ITS Logistics October Supply Chain Report, while others are shifting to intrastate-only operations to avoid enforcement checkpoints. The regional volatility has also driven up spot rates for van and reefer markets, though the sustainability of these gains remains uncertain amid soft demand.
DAT One’s data during the week of October 19-25 reported that load posts rose 2% to 2.26 million, while truck posts fell for the second consecutive week, down 5% to 232,703. National spot rates increased across van and reefer segments, with dry van linehaul rates climbing 2 cents to $1.72 per mile and reefer rates rising 2 cents to $2.10 per mile. All spot rates exceed year-ago levels, giving some relief to carriers as diesel prices fall heading into the holiday season.
The enforcement impact is most pronounced in high-scrutiny states.
“There are strong signs that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity at Florida scale houses is affecting capacity for brokers and reefer load-post volumes, up 33% in the last month and 13% in the previous week,” said Dean Croke, DAT Freight & Analytics principal analyst.
In Lakeland, Florida’s largest refrigerated freight market, reefer load posts surged 28% week-over-week and 35% since the state converted truck weigh and agricultural inspections stations into checkpoints, Croke noted. Despite produce season being months away, outbound spot reefer rates have climbed 10 cents per mile, 3 cents higher than at this time last year.
The rising spot reefer rates are driven by “primarily reduced capacity and lack of carrier willingness to head south into funnel-shaped Florida and be trapped without a load, and be exposed to numerous enforcement locations,” Croke said.
In terms of demand, Croke noted it’s the off-season for produce and just past the summer holiday season, so demand isn’t a factor.
Texas is seeing parallel conditions. Croke noted that McAllen reefer load posts jumped 37% last week and 42% over the past month, with most loads heading for Brooklyn, N.Y., Elizabeth, N.J., Miami, and Los Angeles. Outbound McAllen reefer rates rose 7 cents to $2.03 per mile, which is 14 cents higher than last year.
The Midwest, which represents 46% of national load volume, saw rates increase 2 cents to $1.95 per mile, potentially signaling future national trends.
“While no one is immune to the volatility caused by this ruling, the real impact is being felt largely by brokers and shippers that rely heavily on the transactional and opportunistic capacity typically found on load boards,” said Josh Allen, chief commercial officer at ITS Logistics.
Allen advised shippers to prioritize relationships with intermediaries that maintain strong, vetted carrier networks and prioritize communication, collaboration, and real-time visibility.
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Looming labor issues?
The agricultural sector also warrants close attention, Croke added, particularly produce growers.
Reports indicate that the H-2A temporary agricultural worker program is under strain. U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart this week highlighted the impact of the H-2A’s processing delays and concerns on food security and labor shortages due to the government shutdown.
“Farmers are desperate for workers, and crops are rotting in fields due to a lack of labor. This can only get worse as the 2026 produce season unfolds, which could adversely impact truckload volumes and reduce the impact of tightened capacity resulting from recent regulatory enforcement activities on spot rates,” Croke said.
In September 2025, Descartes reported that U.S. container imports were down 8.4% from the previous month and 8.4% below the prior year. Though a drop from August to September is typical, ITS noted that the “sharper decline reflects ongoing tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.”
“For now, low demand for the most part is masking the effects of regulatory pressures,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS. “It should be noted that lines of business and shippers that rely on spot market capacity would see a greater impact.”
ITS Logistics believes that capacity constraints are expected to intensify due to a number of pressures: indefinite freezes on new non-domiciled CDLs, increase of carrier bankruptcies in Q3/Q4, an aging driver workforce approaching retirement age, and early alarms that the FMCSA ruling will influence insurance policies.
The first legal challenge to the FMCSA ruling was filed Oct. 20, adding another layer of uncertainty on an already unstable market.
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