Class 8 orders slid 24% year-over-year, according to ACT Research, reaching 32,287 units thanks to market segments with lingering pent-up demand.
The vocational straight truck market saw orders jump 24% year-over-year. Export market orders were up 91%, and orders destined for Mexico were up 187%. North American Class 8 tractor orders were down 34% year-over-year, with U.S. tractor orders down 47% from year-ago levels.
"The build rate declined nearly 10% month-over-month," said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst, "leading to 27,999 units of production in October. Anecdotes suggest supply chain issues were at the root of the below-expectations miss. Despite otherwise softening conditions, Q1’24 build expectations remain elevated.
Class 8 build and retail sales continue to track closely, but retail sales ticked down month, causing inventory to move higher, Vieth said.
"For carriers, the long bottom in freight rates continues, with spot rates little changed since April. A big driver of rate weakness has been lagged private fleet capacity additions, Vieth said. "As for-hire fleets tend to be the first buyers in line, private fleets have been the drivers of Class 8 market strength in 2023, adding equipment at the bottom of the cycle and prolonging the rate pain.”
Class 8 orders totaled 255,000 units over the past 12 months, according to FTR. The annualized rate over the past six months has been 233,000 units.
"Build slots continue to be filled at a healthy rate," said FTR Chairman of the Board Eric Starks. "We expected a year-over-year decrease in orders and were not surprised by the month-over-month easing, either. The overall picture for truck demand is steady. Despite freight weakness, fleets continue to be willing to order new equipment, affirming our expectations of replacement demand during 2024.”
