What happens to technological progress when regulations are replaced by market forces? Regulations around technologies often are described as push-through or pull-through. Push-through technologies are those where the regulations force new technologies on the marketplace — the emphasis is on the “how.” Pull-through technologies emphasize the “what” and allow the market to create the “how.”
Take a ride in the way-back machine to the television of old. If you were born before the year 2000s you lived in the television world of 420i, the NTSC standard resolution. NTSC stands for National Television System Committee which controlled the resolution of televisions to 525 scan lines with 29.97 frames per second using interlaced format giving us all the equivalent of 720x480 color television resolution. This is referred to as analog television. This standard controlled U.S. televisions from the 1950s into the 1990s. The standard had its roots in black and white televisions beginning in 1941.
The technological basis of this standard was the CRT — the cathode ray tube — that owned the television market for decades. The NTSC standard was superseded in 2009 by the digital TV (DTV) standard in 2009. PC Magazine describes it this way: “Eleven years before the switch, DTV debuted in major U.S. cities, and the FCC mandated that broadcasters switch to digital by 2006.” A prime example of push-through regulation, setting a deadline and mandating a particular new technology.
But the DTV mandate was pretty late to the game. Market forces actually pushed DTV technology. Consumers in the U.S. saw what was possible with higher resolution digital televisions and felt they were missing out on a much better experience that other countries were enjoying. The regulation reflected an overwhelming market desire for improvement. The DTV standard opened the door for increasingly better television resolution to be offered leading to 1080p, 4k and more recently 8k televisions with multiple technologies. Today’s television technology environment is more a pull-through one, allowing companies to innovate new and hopefully better choices for consumers.
The market ultimately decides on the success or failure of technologies, regardless of regulations. Consumers choose to buy or not buy based on a variety of factors.
Since the 1990s, heavy-duty truck manufacturers have had to meet increasingly stringent air quality standards with their new products. It is open to debate, but I would classify many of these evolving truck air quality regulations over the last 30 years as push-through ones. Often the regulations were written allowing OEMs to innovate solutions, but just as often, there really provided limited viable technology choices, effectively pushing OEMs to one solution.
The consumer was not told to buy the new technology, but the OEMs were limited by regulations to only sell new trucks with the chosen technology. This left the marketplace to decide between buying older, used or refurbished trucks, or go with the new technology in a new truck. Yes, consumers technically had a choice, but realistically there wasn’t one. This often led to the “pre-buy” roller coaster ride where fleets stocked up on the old technology trucks right before implementation of the new standards.
The pre-buy roller coaster, I suggest, was not good for anyone —not for OEMs, not for dealers, not for shippers, not for regulators and not for the public. It led to significant swings in capacity and demand, swings in employment, swings in profits and losses. It often delayed by years the effectiveness of regulators’ efforts by flooding the market with older technologies. And timing being everything, the pre-buy fell on top of other national major economic twists and turns, often compounding challenges.
Let’s fast forward to the present day. Truck regulations are being withdrawn at the behest of the federal government. State governments have differing perspectives. Other countries also are involved as OEMs sell into a North American marketplace not just a U.S. one. It’s a challenging time for OEMs to decide what to do. The changes at the federal level also are occurring well into the development cycle of new lower emission technologies. Essentially the die has been cast for 2027 model year trucks that have been through more than four years of research, development and testing.
Development of new truck technologies, particularly those in the powertrain area, often take four to five years to reach production level quality. It’s not easy nor desirable to short-cut development cycles. For decades, OEMs have been trying to shorten development through greater use of improved analysis, better rapid prototyping, and improved test facilities like being able to do winter or summer testing any time of the year. But all this progress trying to short-cut research and development cycles is fighting greater complexity, greater consumer demand, or what is often called “scope growth.”
Truck buyers want more, safer, better vehicles every year, regulations are only a portion of scope growth. A 1990 truck has much fewer bells and whistles than a 2008 one, and both are far less equipped than a 2026 model because of new option content demanded by customers.
As we get into the future, fleets and shippers are going to continue to want more, better, and cheaper technologies. Some of these wants will be tied to powertrains. Going backwards may not be an option for many truck consumers.
Along with 30 years of environmental improvement has come a massive improvement in fuel economy. Examples of 10, 11 and 12 MPG diesel trucks are here as seen in NACFE’s Run On Less demonstrations and by others. Battery electric regional and long-haul Class 8 trucks are demonstrating 18 MPG to more than 20 MPG diesel equivalents. Natural gas engines are back in vogue with, finally, performance equivalent to the diesels. Alternatives like renewable fuels are becoming more cost effective. Even hydrogen is making progress with fuel cell trucks.
Do you long to go back to piston-powered commercial aircraft? Long to have coal-powered steam trains pulling through towns? Long to have a NTSC tube television?
In the end, the consumer chooses what it wants. Removing regulations may or may not impact the trajectory of adoption of new technologies. Ask the manufacturers of CRT televisions.
