Regulations uncertainty and cost pressure subdue October truck orders.
FTR reported preliminary North American Class 8 net orders of 15,600 units, down 24% from September and 36% from a year earlier. Year-to-date stand at 278,201 units, up 74% year over year. October came in nearly 50% below the 10-year October average of 31,089 units, a weak start to the 2027 order season. September and October combined total 36,002 units, down 20% from the same period last year.
ACT Research echoed a similar picture, with preliminary net orders of 13,500 units in October, down 45% year over year.
Both firms attribute the October results to uncertainty around the EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations and its effect on model year (MY) 2027 pricing and production schedules.
OEMs have begun opening MY 2027 order boards, FTR said, but some may be holding back build slots or final pricing until the rules are clearer. Fleets may be waiting on final regulations and possibly better pricing.
Under the proposed framework, nonconformance penalties could add an estimated $6,000 to $7,000 per engine if passed through to buyers, compared with an estimated $8,000 to $12,000 premium for fully compliant engines. Actual costs will depend on the final rule and OEM pricing decisions. Actual costs will depend on the final rule and OEM pricing.
[RELATED: Detroit readies rollout of new 2027 engines]
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR, pointed out other factors: “Fleet capital spending priorities may be shifting toward trailers rather than tractors in the near term. Also, while freight rates are strong, so are costs for fuel, insurance, and labor, pressuring margins and possibly limiting purchases for now.”
Moyer added that replacement needs, tighter capacity, and firmer freight rates continue to support demand, but with the EPA 2027 pre-buy now complete, orders now hinge on fleet profitability, capital priorities, and regulatory uncertainty.
“Weak October results suggest that some purchases may be deferred rather than canceled, potentially allowing orders to strengthen as emissions requirements, production schedules, and equipment pricing become clearer,” Moyer said.
[RELATED: Diesel price pressures will linger into 2027, experts warn]
The decline also reflects ongoing cost pressures and midterm political uncertainty, ACT Research noted. But that's only slowed a trend that shows the U.S. trucking fleet is growing, having added more than 147,000 verified vehicles in the third quarter, according to RigDig.
Preliminary Classes 5-7 net orders rose 14% year over year to 18,000 units, extending the segment’s recovery from last year’s soft volume.
“While spot rates remain supportive of equipment demand, the lack of clarity around EPA 2027 rules and associated costs has left OEMs and fleets unable to plan for next year,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “It’s not a lack of desire for new equipment holding fleets back, but rather the inability to make informed investment decisions in the face of regulatory and economic uncertainty.”
