When severe winter weather disrupts supply chains, the immediate focus typically falls on road closures, stranded drivers, and delivery delays. However, a critical weakness often escapes attention: what happens to the cargo itself during these periods of immobility. As freight sits at temporary locations, exposure to theft and loss increases.
While Overhaul doesn’t track cargo thefts during adverse weather, Director of Intelligence and Response Danny Ramon offered approximate projections. “We expect to see a spike of around 15–20% in areas affected by severe weather, as conditions can provide cover and law enforcement is often focused on relief and recovery efforts, creating more opportunity for cargo theft,” Ramon said.
Keith Lewis, vice president of operations for Verisk CargoNet, echoed these concerns, noting that the primary risk during recovery periods involves compromised security protocols as companies rush to clear backlogs.
2025 cargo theft trends
According to CargoNet’s annual analysis, estimated losses were nearly at $725 million in 2025, a 60% increase from 2024.
Cargo theft continues to evolve, with organized criminal enterprises becoming increasingly sophisticated. The report highlighted shifts in theft patterns across traditionally low-risk regions, such as Kern County (up 82%) and San Joaquin County (up 44%).
Targeted commodities also saw a rise, with food and beverage products seeing a 47% increase from 2024. Meat, seafood, and tree nuts reported regional variations in theft patterns. Metal theft jumped 77% from a year ago, driven by the high demand for copper products.
Lewis emphasized that bad actors operate with market precision: “They’re good at knowing the market. And they’re only going to steal what the consumer is going to buy.”
Meanwhile, thefts of consumer electronics—such as televisions and personal computers—declined, while enterprise computing hardware and cryptocurrency mining equipment emerged as rising targets. Vehicle-related products, including tires, auto parts, and motor oils, continue to attract thieves, especially engines and components bound for domestic vehicle assembly plants.
[Related: Holiday freight pressures are driving accidents, theft and fraud]
Vulnerable conditions during post-storm
A critical post-storm vulnerability is reduced security vetting. Lewis warned that when companies face delivery backlogs, “You’ll see vetting go down… because we’ve got to get the freight out the door.”
He described this as taking a “Vegas kind of look” at hiring decisions, with companies “rolling the dice” on questionable truckers to maintain freight flow and clear storm-related delays.
Ramon noted that building materials are particularly vulnerable during recovery periods, adding that some of the most consistently stolen categories include building and industrial products—especially shingles and lumber—following hurricanes and tornadoes. Lewis also anticipates thefts of building supplies, including plywood, roofing, insulation, and hardware supplies from major big-box stores.
Stolen building materials can re-enter legitimate markets easily, Ramon explained. “Reintroducing these goods into the legitimate supply chain can be as simple as driving around construction sites and offering the cargo at a slight discount (or not, depending on demand), supported by a thinly veiled story about excess inventory.”
With no clear chain of custody for lumber and little burden of proof regarding the origins of solar panels and related equipment, these items are particularly attractive to organized theft rings during high-demand recovery periods.
[Related: Embracing cybersecurity beyond the back office to over the road]
Critical risks companies miss
Effective security begins before weather strikes, Ramon emphasized. This includes proper driver training, proactive monitoring, route and stop planning, clear escalation procedures and contacts, and risk assessments.
For immediate post-storm response, Ramon said that an inspection of both the equipment and the cargo (or cargo seals) is essential. Anything missing should be reported immediately.
Despite severe weather, Lewis noted, “We don’t really shut down the interstate commerce system for three or four days. The trucks roll. They only park when the roads are closed.” This pressure to maintain delivery schedules, he said, creates vulnerabilities as companies prioritize speed over security protocols.
