Trailer net orders showed slow demand in November, falling 19% month over month in November to 13,071 units and 45% from a year ago, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.
ACT Research’s preliminary data showed similar sentiments, with November net orders at 13,000 units, down 4,100 units or 24% from October’s 17,100 level and 37% below the prior November.
Sequential softness is normal following October, which typically marks the peak of orders as order boards open for the following year, said Jennifer McNealy, ACT Research’s director of CV market research and publications.
The data indicates that October’s uptick was merely seasonal, rather than the start of a market recovery, FTR noted. Order volumes remain well below historical averages, weighed down by tariff-driven trailer cost increases, soft freight demand, tight margins, and fleet reluctance to a near-term rate recovery.
The dramatic decline points to fleets postponing equipment replacement into 2026 and possibly 2027, FTR pointed out. “Growth-oriented ordering is unlikely until freight fundamentals and fleet profitability materially improve,” it said.
ACT Research’s November results push the year-to-date total to 151,300 units, 9% ahead of the comparable 2024 period.
Meanwhile, FTR reported that that 2025 year-to-date orders of 148,862 units represents a 7% annual increase. However, FTR said that a closer look at the data reveals that much of the gain reflects orders into early 2025 from late 2024 as many fleets held off until after the election in November to gain clarity on purchasing decisions.
Looking at the September to November period, FTR pointed out that orders are down 28% year over year.
The trailer market is constrained by trade policy, elevated high costs, and cautious fleet behavior, said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR.
Policy actions now drive both the cost inflation and demand uncertainty, Moyer said, with limited visibility on trade results complicating pricing, sourcing, and capital investment decisions in the industry.
Section 232 tariffs represent the industry’s most significant cost significant cost pressure, Moyer elaborated, while new risks are emerging in the van trailer segment.
“A U.S. International Trade Commission antidumping and countervailing-duty investigation into van trailers and subassemblies imported from Canada, China, and Mexico adds further uncertainty for cross-border supply chains and pricing dynamics in the high-volume van segment,” he said.
“Tariffs and expanding trade actions are locking in higher costs and sustained uncertainty across the U.S. trailer market,” he added.
Moyer said OEMs and suppliers are likely to emphasize domestic sourcing, “tariff-aware design,” and flexible pricing. Meanwhile, dealers will need to manage inventory carefully and practice transparent communication with customers as higher prices dampen demand.
For fleets, rising acquisition costs and policy volatility might bring in selective ordering, extended equipment lifecycles, and more focus on total cost of ownership, Moyer noted.
McNealy said net orders remain muted, while cancellations remain elevated. Looking forward, she cited moderating economic growth, persistent for-hire carrier losses, and unclear government policies as headwinds to stronger trailer demand.
“While pent-up demand is building and fleets will eventually need to divert capex to trailing equipment purchases deferred over the past few years, stronger revenues will be needed before the purchase spigot is opened wider,” McNealy said.
Trailer production cuts materialized in November, FTR reported, with builds falling 23% month over month to 13,533 units (double the normal seasonal decline) and down 1% annually. Yet manufacturers continue to outpace demand as OEMs manage labor levels, fixed-cost absorption, and year-end capacity utilization.
As a result, backlogs contracted to 72,697 units (down 1% monthly and 23% annually), though the backlog-to-build ratio improved to 5.4 months given production fell faster than orders.
