The latest data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics included major revisions to five years of historical data. Its most recent report includes a downward revision of 45,600 jobs in November and additional losses of 5,200 jobs in December and January, bringing a three-month net loss of 53,800 jobs.
Total employment now stands more than 125,000 jobs below peak pandemic levels and 54,000 jobs below pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said the data revisions support the market volatility observed since the end of November.
“Depending on the index, linehaul costs per mile have increased by roughly 25%, or about $0.40 per mile, over that same period. If these revisions are accurate, such a large and sudden drop in employment would strongly support the level of volatility seen over the past two months,” Spencer said.
Increased Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) enforcement on foreign and non-English-speaking drivers could also have attributed to part of the sudden employment shift, he added. Rising operating costs could also be a factor, along with surging insurance premiums.
[Related: Rising costs and artificial intelligence to reshape moving industry in 2026]
Declining employment in the trucking industry indicates a shift toward capacity tightening, said Mazen Danaf, principal economist and data science manager at Uber Freight.
Notably, long-distance truckload employment saw a significant downward adjustment, Danaf observed. Between 2022 and 2025, the industry shed approximately 56,000 roles (10%), reaching its lowest level since 2014, a sharper contraction than even the early COVID-19 period (around 4%).
However, Danaf said he sees a turning point emerging.
“With the recent freight market tightening, a recent uptick in tractor orders suggests carriers are beginning to reinvest — a sign of cautious confidence in future demand as spot rates climb,” he said.
Class 8 truck orders surged in December and January, with FTR Transportation Intelligence noting a 27% year-over-year increase.
Spencer said he views tightening capacity as a precursor to bigger changes in the industry.
“While other leading indicators already suggest larger and more sustained disruptions are likely in 2026, these revisions provide strong supporting evidence for that outlook," he said. "Storms and other disruptions in recent years have not produced the same level of rate volatility and capacity shortages seen during this year’s winter storms."
“The capacity environment remains highly sensitive to disruption, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the next inflationary cycle is approaching,” he added.
From a broader context, economist Aaron Terrazas noted that while January’s headline payroll gain beat expectations, job growth remains concentrated in a narrow set of industries like healthcare and data center construction.
Trucking employment was particularly weak, Terrazas said.
“The fact that trucking payrolls were so soft in 2025 amid a lackluster freight pricing environment implies that demand was also very soft last year," he said. "It's still not clear how much of these shifts are cyclical versus structural; very likely we're seeing different dynamics in different corners of the economy.”
Terrazas also flagged uncertainty in the goods economy, driven by trade policy and shifting trade patterns that have yet to normalize, while the white-collar economy appears to be enduring more headwinds.
